A study on the behavior of currencies and the fluctuations in the market

Purchasing power parity model Appendix B: Interest rate parity calculation Appendix C: Estimated differences between real effective exchange rate and the consistency of the same with the policies of the countries Appendix E: US inflation rate of years from to Appendix F:

A study on the behavior of currencies and the fluctuations in the market

October 15, It has preceded finance and economics as the fundamental theory explaining movements in asset prices. The accepted view is that markets operate efficiently and stock prices instantly reflect all available information.

Since all participants are privy to the same information, price fluctuations are unpredictable and respond immediately to genuinely new information. As a result, efficient markets do not allow investors to earn above average returns without accepting additional risks. Yet, as we all know or have experienced ourselves, markets do not always act this way or exhibit rationality.

In fact, a fundamental shortcoming of EMH is its inability to explain excess volatility. Efficient Markets Fundamental to modern portfolio theory, efficient markets are the basis that underpins financial decision making.

The logic behind this is characterized by a random walk, where all subsequent price changes reflect a random departure from previous prices. In this case, news and price changes are unpredictable.

Therefore, both a novice and expert investor, holding a diversified portfolio, will obtain comparable returns regardless of their varying levels of expertise. As we know, the distribution of news is channeled through various sources and according to Fama, this represents three different forms of market efficiency; strong form, semi-strong form, and weak form.

Strong form efficiency is where all information, public, personal and confidential, is reflected in share prices. Therefore investors are unable to achieve a competitive advantage and deters insider trading. To a lesser degree, semi-strong efficiency proposes that share prices are a reflection of publicly available information.

Since market prices already reflect public information, investors are unable to gain abnormal returns. Therefore, technical analysis is not a practical tool to predict future price movements. In the wake of the Financial Crisis, many of our traditional financial theories have been challenged for their lack of practical perspective on the markets.

If all the assumptions about efficient markets had held, then the housing bubble and subsequent crash would not have occurred. Yet, efficiency failed to explain market anomalies, including speculative bubbles and excess volatility. As the housing bubble reached its peak and investors continued to pour funds into subprime mortgages, irrational behavior began to precede the markets.

Contrary to rational expectations, investors acted irrationally in favor of potential arbitrage opportunities. Yet an efficient market would have automatically adjusted asset prices to rational levels.

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Besides its failure to address financial downturns, the theory itself has often been contested. In theory, each individual is able to access and analyze information at the same pace. However, with the growing number of information channels, including social media and the internet, even the most involved investors are unable to monitor every piece of information.

A study on the behavior of currencies and the fluctuations in the market

With that being said, investment decisions tend to be influenced more so by emotions rather than rationality. A Behavioral Approach Like any new study, behavioral finance began from the anomalies that the prevailing wisdom, efficient markets, could not explain. As a budding field, behavioral finance seeks to incorporate cognitive psychology with conventional finance in order to provide an explanation for irrational investment decisions.

At its core, behavioral finance is based on the notion that investors are subject to behavioral biases which influence less than rational decisions. Often times, behavioral based biases come from cognitive psychology and have been applied to financial markets.

Fundamentally, anchoring draws on our tendency to attach our thoughts to a reference point, often times our initial decision, and refuse to waver regardless of access to new information.

Drawing its roots from basic psychology, hindsight bias is the belief that past events were predictable and should have been acted on at the time. In many cases, this is a form of rationalizing previous errors and can lead to overconfidence. Yet, even in investing, individuals will fail to recognize that past events are independent of the future.

While these are some of the most frequently exhibited phenomena, many other biases present themselves in our decision making. With this in mind, markets clearly do not price assets as rationally as an efficient market would claim.

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Therefore, constructing a portfolio with a behavioral approach should incorporate multiple layers with each layer representing a well-defined goal. The base layer, for example, should intend to hold low risk assets as a means to mitigate risk and losses, while a higher level would attempt to maximize returns.

A study on the behavior of currencies and the fluctuations in the market

Many concepts of behavioral finance tend to contradict the foundations of efficient markets. With that being said efficiency should not be discounted altogether.By investment, economists mean the production of goods that will be used to produce other goods.

This definition differs from the popular usage, wherein decisions to purchase stocks (see stock market) or bonds are thought of as investment. How do fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate affect the value of that debt held by foreigners?

As the dollar becomes stronger relative to a foreign currency, for a given face value of bond holdings, it will yield more home currency to foreigners, so the asset will be worth more to foreign investors.

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Get Ready for the “Strongest Commodities Bull Market of All Time” Justin Spittler. Investors hate gold. Sentiment’s so bad that The Vanguard Group—one of the world’s biggest money managers—is overhauling its gold fund. The impact of currency fluctuations on the internal market Communication from the Commission to the European Council Foreword The European Union has seen considerable currency fluctuations since the summer of In three years, five currencies have depreciated by 20% or more against the most stable currencies in the EMS.

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